Roulette Myths Vol 1.
Posted: Thu May 17, 2007 12:30 pm
Volume 1 - It can't be that colour again... surely!!
I'm not sure how well or not this will illustrate my point, but here goes. I've read through a few posts regarding chains of red numbers or black numbers being drawn from Roulette wheels (be they in a casino, or a FOBT), and to my dismay I can't get my head around the number of poeple who think that because there have been 8 red numbers drawn in succession, that the 9th number drawn can't possibly be red.
For the purpose of collecting data, I have used the following website:
http://nlvm.usu.edu/en/nav/frames_asid_305_g_3_t_5.html
I have taken this website to be a "true" example of a coin toss (a dangerous assumption perhaps, but i'm not going to argue that).
For the purpose of this experiment, the "Heads" toss of a coin will be taken as Red, and the "Tails" toss of a coin will be taken as Black plus the number 0. As a result, I have set the probability of a coin toss being Heads to 0.486 (or 18/37).
Note: I have provided the data in the file below.
The important data is "Longest Run Of Heads", which equates to the longest run of consecutive red numbers being drawn. From the data shown, there are a couple of things to point out that I hope will help emphasise my point:
- Even only tossing the coin 100 times, it was possible to have a run of 8 consectutive heads.
- As the number of coin tosses increased, so did the average number of consecutive heads.
- The longest run of heads recorded throughout was 19 (!!!)
For me the most important fact was the 2nd one above - the more the coin is tossed, then on average the greater the number of consecutive heads became.
Say for example you can see the last 15 numbers drawn, of which there were 13 red, 2 black, and the last 10 out were all red. What conclusion can be drawn from this? Does the next number or two out have to be black?
Of course it doesn't!!! Because you're only considering the last 15 numbers drawn, you're almost fooled into thinking this way. Look at the 3rd statement above - 19 heads in a row. If you look at my example over a larger number of coin tosses, it's not impossible to believe that indeed the next 3, 4 or even 5 numbers will also be red, maybe more!!!
Hopefully I've done enough to convice you that betting consecutive reds or blacks can be a dangerous strategy. It would be easy for me to turn round and say "You never win in the long run at roulette, the Casino always has the edge". This is true, but sometimes explaining things in a bit more detail, or providing data for people to look at will put off at least a couple of people from trying this.
If feedback is positive, then using the same website and ideas I will throw up another couple of examples exploring different bets on the roulette wheel.
I'm not sure how well or not this will illustrate my point, but here goes. I've read through a few posts regarding chains of red numbers or black numbers being drawn from Roulette wheels (be they in a casino, or a FOBT), and to my dismay I can't get my head around the number of poeple who think that because there have been 8 red numbers drawn in succession, that the 9th number drawn can't possibly be red.
For the purpose of collecting data, I have used the following website:
http://nlvm.usu.edu/en/nav/frames_asid_305_g_3_t_5.html
I have taken this website to be a "true" example of a coin toss (a dangerous assumption perhaps, but i'm not going to argue that).
For the purpose of this experiment, the "Heads" toss of a coin will be taken as Red, and the "Tails" toss of a coin will be taken as Black plus the number 0. As a result, I have set the probability of a coin toss being Heads to 0.486 (or 18/37).
Note: I have provided the data in the file below.
The important data is "Longest Run Of Heads", which equates to the longest run of consecutive red numbers being drawn. From the data shown, there are a couple of things to point out that I hope will help emphasise my point:
- Even only tossing the coin 100 times, it was possible to have a run of 8 consectutive heads.
- As the number of coin tosses increased, so did the average number of consecutive heads.
- The longest run of heads recorded throughout was 19 (!!!)
For me the most important fact was the 2nd one above - the more the coin is tossed, then on average the greater the number of consecutive heads became.
Say for example you can see the last 15 numbers drawn, of which there were 13 red, 2 black, and the last 10 out were all red. What conclusion can be drawn from this? Does the next number or two out have to be black?
Of course it doesn't!!! Because you're only considering the last 15 numbers drawn, you're almost fooled into thinking this way. Look at the 3rd statement above - 19 heads in a row. If you look at my example over a larger number of coin tosses, it's not impossible to believe that indeed the next 3, 4 or even 5 numbers will also be red, maybe more!!!
Hopefully I've done enough to convice you that betting consecutive reds or blacks can be a dangerous strategy. It would be easy for me to turn round and say "You never win in the long run at roulette, the Casino always has the edge". This is true, but sometimes explaining things in a bit more detail, or providing data for people to look at will put off at least a couple of people from trying this.
If feedback is positive, then using the same website and ideas I will throw up another couple of examples exploring different bets on the roulette wheel.