Fort Knok - Casino bandit

General fruit machine related chat, if it doesn't fit another category discuss it here..
User avatar
blackmogu
Senior Member
Posts: 1028
Joined: Sat Oct 21, 2006 3:39 pm
Location: South Korea

Post by blackmogu »

oh.. and casino £4k's aren't random. Quite clearly stated they are compensated. I usually sit and watch someone punt them for 400+ before sitting on them. Seems to work for me, Only bad exception was Royal Treasure which took £3000 for no feature :|
ob
Senior Member
Posts: 3275
Joined: Thu Nov 17, 2005 1:04 pm

Post by ob »

erm, the casinos I have been to they have stated "this machine is random" on the sticker on the machine. Perhaps this differs from casino to casino.

To win on a random machine on 92% over time takes incredible luck. I rarely see anyone actually winning on them! Why do you think vegas makes billions etc. on these slots, it aint from people winning on them!
User avatar
JG
Senior Member
Posts: 6462
Joined: Sat Apr 30, 2005 2:42 pm
Location: England

Post by JG »

To be honest, if I watched someone punt a Cashino or an Elvis or a Slotto for £400+, I would not be rushing over. £400 in a compensated £4000 jackpot machine? Yowser, I'm not sure I'd play if £8000 went in without much back.
It's the equivalent of saying I wait until someone puts £1 into a £10 cash jackpot Viva Espagne, then jump on and clean up. I put £2 in and got £6.40 off the top duty free the other day. Loving this easy cash at the moment.
My limited experience of Cashino/Elvis/other random bollocks is this. You put in a piece of paper with the queen's head on it. It makes a noise which makes you think you're in Las Vegas. You have ten spins and get three jacks for 50p.
You collect the 50p, those ten pence pieces maybe useful for trying a hold on something later. Into the wallet. You whack a big purple up the slot.
Something must happen soon, it must do. Can't I be like those people in the services who always seemed to win when I was playing Wizziwigs?
Each time the old wallet squeezes out the pocket a little easier, slightly slimmer, another purple bringing out three aces for 50p and WOW!!! four tens for a humungous pound.
Then the sad, sad, sad sight of one banknote left in your wallet. Keeping your one shred of dignity in tact you repress the urge to put the TFT through with a heavy chair and walk off fucked off, fuming and wanting to kill yourself and everyone else, or tool the hell out of the machine.
THIS IS RANDOM! This is what RANDOM is, this is THE WORLD ACCORDING TO RANDOM.
Randomly compensated, compensated randomly, a sticker saying random, software saying compensated, a compensated random sticker stating randomly compensated software.
Even the people who seem to be winning the jackpots don't look happy. Why not? It's because £500 is not a great return for remortgaging your house - that's why.

Random machines are shit, they may be rigged, they might not, who cares? THEY'RE SHIT - ONLY TOOLERS win on them.

Look even your BFKs and your PMKs don't touch 'em, even MattB can't get LUCKY on all of 'em, actually he only ever posted about his jackpot on DOND, so maybe he can. Jeez, he's probably had a few £1005 tops on them actually, why did I bring Mattb in on a subject about being unlucky?
If ever they make a B3 Snakez, that might be his downfall.

Look your average BFK, if there is such a thing, might pan an HP or a D:Ream along with your usual stuff. They might expand, they might pioneer, but they do not touch THIS FILTH. It's FILTH, pure FILTH. 90% of £1, 10p a spin, a spin lasts no time at all, never any features, it's a gravy train for the operator and a player's disaster area.


Once again Ob has his finger on the knuckle, the pulse of the nub of the crux of reality. Poker Pete keeps records of these things, he keeps records, records are what you need when you're Spinning discs. Spinadisc records.

I know you've had the proper meaty player flavours of the pie one Gee Gees back in the day. I know you made well on those, know your tie hecks, Fool of ham, Attic Attac, Usual sausages. Maybe you've got the saucy brown sussed or you've got Jon Prescott 'aving it large in a Sports and Social, sorry working man's club.

I'd be surprised though, these 'random' machines swallow big time, as well as money, if you have the bankroll.

You're one lucky man if you're up BM, one lucky man. It sounds like you've punted some big money. Fort Knox, Charms in Hills, Casino £4000 jackpots. Also watching someone lose £400 isn't easy. Time drain, money drain surely? If there were patterns, the time and money required to find them would be immense. Not an investment that would appeal. I'd suggest a bankroll of at least £100K and if you have that to invest, maybe the casino isn't the place to go.
ob
Senior Member
Posts: 3275
Joined: Thu Nov 17, 2005 1:04 pm

Post by ob »

yes I don't think you realise quite how lucky you are to actually be up on random 90-92% based machines blackmogu, the statistical chance of this over £100K played through is close to zero. Infact on 92% £2 a spin thats 16p a spin, a spin on the casino ones being 2-3 seconds max, 20 spins a minute then so over £3 a minute in expected (average) losses!!!!

An hours play is an expected loss of £180, 5 hours play and you have an expected loss of over £1000.

Agree with JG, even if a £4000jp machine is compensated, which I have never seen anyhow, the cycles will run in to hundreds of thousands, there will be little to no short term (ie. £1000-5000 played though) compensation.

I saw loads playing those fort knok things, and one thing was common throughout all the players... they were ALL LOSING! That's what happens when you play games where the odds are heavily against you...
User avatar
blackmogu
Senior Member
Posts: 1028
Joined: Sat Oct 21, 2006 3:39 pm
Location: South Korea

Post by blackmogu »

I've found games like Phaoroes Fortune and Indian Dreaming to be consistently fair.. i.e they take roughly 300-400 and then throw out a reasonable feature for 100-250, or even a biggie now and again. I've punted these loads, and they seem to play very close to rate, with only a sliver of percentage going towards the JP. They are in fact, really playable if you are willing to invest some time and observe them, and some discipline and not punt in the casino ! I'm no fool, and don't do things that don't show me a return on some sort of consistent basis.

And on the topic of random 500's - I _detested_ them pre-gamble wheel. In fact I rarely played one, even if I did it would be a score max. Now however, I am doing incredibly well (still to hit a loss on them since last time of posting). Maybe it'll last, more likely it won't - but it'd be nice if you could hold back the screeches of "IT'S RANDOM.. blah blah." I'm quite well aware of this fact, and that the odds involved of myself winning over a reasonable period of time are quite slim. But, I'd thought I'd share my unusual results with others on here, since the mere fact that I'm making money on them over such an extended period is unlikely to say the least.

A quick note: Anyone remember the old Red empty on Lock 'N' Load - randomness can be used towards your obvious advantage sometimes.

Oh, and I agree - Fort Knox machines are generally gash. Better ones to play are Phaoroes Fortune, Indian Dreaming and Royal Treasures.
ob
Senior Member
Posts: 3275
Joined: Thu Nov 17, 2005 1:04 pm

Post by ob »

Okay, so long as you admit its pure luck then we're all good - you cannot possibly say it's due to the way you play them, as any way to play a random machine is as good as the next. My gripe was that you were trying to say you had a (long term profitable) method to play a random machine - this is not possible.

The gamble wheel £500's are still random, that gamble wheel is random not progressive, I've stuck £1300 in and not got over £300 ages ago, this when it went to the £300 when I was £400 in... that was quite enough of them for me!! Seen 100's play these things, and very few big winners, infact only 3 jp's have been won in the months on end they have been in the bookies in town - this when people sit pumping them quite a bit.

The casino machines you mention in the original paragraph I couldn't really comment on, but to say that if they state they are random, then observing them is pointless, and much of the rest of your 1st paragraph would not be true. If they did indeed state compensated, then you may well be right, who knows...
User avatar
blackmogu
Senior Member
Posts: 1028
Joined: Sat Oct 21, 2006 3:39 pm
Location: South Korea

Post by blackmogu »

I can't say either way since I just don't have access to the source code that runs on the fruits. Neither can you say that they have implemented randomness in a non-manipulatable way without the same access. All we can do is comment on what we can observe with parameters we can control. We know that they have _tried_ to implement randomness. But as any number theorist will tell you, designing a system to be raqndom is non-trivial. (Yes, I studied number theory at uni, so I have some background in the area).

I'm observing behaviour that suggests there is a problem. It could be that it is just a statistical outlier. I have no way to make a conclusion based on the available evidence. But, I can apply some sort of scientific method to my results without making any assumptions.

It helps to keep an open mind, wouldn't you agree ? I'm not suggesting go row them because I'm winning loads on them, I'm only suggesting it's worth looking at more closely. With what we empirically know about them, it's only logical to.
ob
Senior Member
Posts: 3275
Joined: Thu Nov 17, 2005 1:04 pm

Post by ob »

blackmogu wrote:I can't say either way since I just don't have access to the source code that runs on the fruits. Neither can you say that they have implemented randomness in a non-manipulatable way without the same access. All we can do is comment on what we can observe with parameters we can control. We know that they have _tried_ to implement randomness. But as any number theorist will tell you, designing a system to be raqndom is non-trivial. (Yes, I studied number theory at uni, so I have some background in the area).

I'm observing behaviour that suggests there is a problem. It could be that it is just a statistical outlier. I have no way to make a conclusion based on the available evidence. But, I can apply some sort of scientific method to my results without making any assumptions.

It helps to keep an open mind, wouldn't you agree ? I'm not suggesting go row them because I'm winning loads on them, I'm only suggesting it's worth looking at more closely. With what we empirically know about them, it's only logical to.
Hmm yes, I know a computer can never attain true randomness, this is without doubt, but remember, these machines are made in vegas, which means billions of pounds has been poured into trying to make them as random as feasibly can be - you're experience is probably (I'd personally say definantely) a coincidence - it is indeed human nature to see patterns on random outcomes.

Yes I agree it helps to keep an open mind, but from my experience, and observation of others, most lose.... in the long run the only winner is the casino.
User avatar
blackmogu
Senior Member
Posts: 1028
Joined: Sat Oct 21, 2006 3:39 pm
Location: South Korea

Post by blackmogu »

agreed - the casino wins in the long term 8)

You know, the only thing that makes me think there is something odd on these bookies 500's is that I've played them since RR came out with the pots and wheel at least 3 terminals a day, and haven't lost yet.

That's highly unlikely in my book :) I'm enjoying it whilst I can, and indeed if they are too loose, I hope others can make off them before they are fixed.

But yes, likely i'm just being the most lucky guy in the world.
ob
Senior Member
Posts: 3275
Joined: Thu Nov 17, 2005 1:04 pm

Post by ob »

Ironically I've just watched this derren brown "the system" tonight, and I clocked on pretty quick what he was doing...

If you've not watched it, what he does is email a "random" woman with a tip, saying not to put any money on, just watch the race.. anyhow the horse wins. Intrigued by this "great call", the next email she is sent she puts £5 on the tip, it wins again... The next 3 races the same happens with her putting more and more on each race and the tip winning every time..... Eventually she was went onto the program and was told she'd get a "last" tip, so she'd better put as much money as possible on it... (so she loaned money etc.etc.), considering the last 5 had won, how could she not take this opportunity.....

Anyhow how did he predict the 5 races in a row?!?!??!

Well he orignally sent thousands of people emails, everyone was split into groups, 1 group received a tip for horse 1, 1 for horse 2... etc. etc. ( each race was a 6 horse race ).... anyhow, so 1 group of people would get the right tip. So out of the original say 6000 people, 1000 would get the right tip, and then he did the same the next race, split the 1000 into 6 more groups, so again 1 group would get the right tip. Eventually after 5 races, 1 person would remain that has been in the right group (by complete fluke) every time, so she always had the right tip!!!

Here you see how someone is completely fooled by their own experience, thinking this system worked....

In my view blackmogu - you are like her... the 1 in a million that have actually won on these things :)
User avatar
blackmogu
Senior Member
Posts: 1028
Joined: Sat Oct 21, 2006 3:39 pm
Location: South Korea

Post by blackmogu »

:D good analogy, but I don't claim to have a system ! I'm just playing them and utilising the gamble more than most people would push it. I don't 'believe' that I have something, just recognising that something unusual is happening in my experience.

Now.. what are the odds against one of the small circle of people on fruitchat experiencing a phenomenally lucky streak like mine, compared to the odds that the way I'm gambling is yielding consistent results ?

If you are open minded about the whole thing, you'd be bound to go for the latter being more likely. (BTW I'm telling the truth about not hitting a loss yet). Just because it is more likely doesn't mean it's true however !

Anyways, I think we've exhausted this particular thread. I'll settle with being lucky. Just to compound my luck I gambled to £500 in William Hills on Big Bucks with £60 investment at 20:37pm tonight. :D

Sods had no cash in the shop so I have to cash it tommorrow...
ob
Senior Member
Posts: 3275
Joined: Thu Nov 17, 2005 1:04 pm

Post by ob »

yeh we'll wrap it up at just you being lucky, I have personally took many losses (albeit of many months ago) pushing that gamble wheel (for the £500 I mean) which is completely opposite to your experience just to offer an alternative - I played the way you would have done yet yielded near consistant losses.... has been an interesting debate though :)
User avatar
JG
Senior Member
Posts: 6462
Joined: Sat Apr 30, 2005 2:42 pm
Location: England

Post by JG »

An interesting thread. Looking into the specifics of the new 'gamble' breed of B3s, do you just double up BM or are you using 'different' techniques to gamble when you attain a win on reels?
ob
Senior Member
Posts: 3275
Joined: Thu Nov 17, 2005 1:04 pm

Post by ob »

JG wrote:An interesting thread. Looking into the specifics of the new 'gamble' breed of B3s, do you just double up BM or are you using 'different' techniques to gamble when you attain a win on reels?
LOL, if indeed this gamble is as stated as random, no particular gamble is better than any other... although I concede flaws could exist in any computer program, I would have to have categorical proof to believe any method of gambling on this wheel was actually long term profitable...

You can consider this gamble, similar to that of "bonus roulette" on the willaim hill consoles... this gamble is actually a 100% payout wheel, what always suprises me is people are so willing to play the initial roulette game which is on a 97% average payout, where they are totally unwilling to do the bonus wheel gamble, which as it states on the help (and indeed I worked out it was actually) is a 100% fair gamble...

I've not played them for ages (back to slots now), but if I remember correctly the pie chart was exactly 50/50 red and blue for a double/nothing gamble which represents a 100% gamble. From this the optimal strategy to get the best overall payout percentage is to gamble all wins for the £500 (as you are taking on more of the 100% gamble and less of the 92% gamble). Still you will be getting less than 100% on average...

I'll tell you what's the best bet blackmogu, get ur arse onto the betfair zero games, 100% payout, with you're luck, you can't lose.... (over £40K+ through I'm over £2000 up... you can have the stats if you want :P )
Locked